27 अगस्त की उलटी गिनती शुरू होती है: क्या ट्रम्प भारत पर अंतिम 25% टैरिफ बम छोड़ देंगे?

With just days left before the August 27 deadline, Indian markets are gripping the edge of uncertainty as President Donald Trump's additional 25% tariff on Indian goods threatens to double the trade penalty to a crushing 50% total. The sword of Damocles hangs heavy over Asia's third-largest economy, with exporters and investors split on whether the punitive measure will actually materialize.

A Nomura survey reveals investor skepticism runs deep, with nearly half believing there's less than a 40% chance the additional tariff will be implemented. Yet India's unwavering stance on Russian oil purchases, the trigger for this potential trade war escalation, suggests the pain may be inevitable.

"Uncertainty still prevails on whether the US will implement the 25% additional tariff on India for its purchases of Russian oil, which is set to become effective on 27 August," Nomura stated in its latest pulse check. "While Russia-Ukraine peace deal prospects are one factor, India has refused to reduce its imports of Russian oil, citing its energy security needs."

The global brokerage's survey paints a picture of divided sentiment as about 31% of respondents believe there's only a 20-40% chance of implementation, while 23% remain undecided. However, Nomura's own assessment strikes a more ominous tone.

"Given India's firm stance on Russian oil purchases, we believe the risk of the penalty being implemented is higher than is currently perceived," the firm warned. In their base case scenario, they expect the 25% reciprocal tariff to persist through FY26, with the penalty tariff likely effective until November—a timeline that could slash GDP growth to 6.0% from their prior 6.2% estimate.

The 50% effective tariff rate puts India alongside Brazil in facing the world's highest trade barriers. Estimates by Jefferies show that the tariff rate will imply that a large majority of India's $87 billion (2.2% of GDP) worth of exports to the US could be at risk.

Only pharmaceutical and electronics exports, which is about 30% of India's US shipments, remain exempt for now.

Also Read | Tariff tandav on India’s $87 billion export machine. Decoding impact on economy, markets

Market veterans sound alarm

Dr. VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments, warns that the market impact will extend far beyond numbers. "Even though a 50% tariff is unlikely to significantly impact India's growth, there will be adverse impact on India's exports and loss of jobs in labour-intensive sectors like textiles, gems and jewellery, and leather," he cautioned.

The veteran strategist highlighted the psychological warfare at play: "The sentimental impact of this development will be negative from the market perspective. FII selling, too, can impact the market."

However, he identified potential safe harbors: "Domestic-consumption segments like financials, telecom, aviation, hotels, cement, and segments of capital goods are better placed to withstand the adverse headwinds."

Emkay Global expects clarity to emerge this week, though optimism is fading fast. "Clarity around US tariffs is expected this week – the likelihood of a negotiated settlement is fading and the final effective tariff of 50% cannot be ruled out," the firm stated.

Also Read | Xenophobic autarky! Jefferies' Chris Wood on 50% tariff against India

The brokerage sees a potential silver lining in improved China relations but acknowledges market paralysis: "Overall, we think that a decisive GST easing would offset the global stresses, although the market may be on wait-and-watch mode till clarity emerges."

Jefferies points to broader geopolitical complexities derailing what could have been a swift resolution. "Political developments in the US and the timing of the India-Pakistan conflict came in the way of a US-India trade deal, which otherwise was quickly doable," the firm noted.

Despite public hopes for a last-minute reprieve, India is quietly preparing for the worst. Jefferies reports that "the govt is planning to support certain employment-heavy sectors with measures such as credit guarantee schemes (similar to Covid times) in response to tariff challenges."

The irony isn't lost on market watchers—India's energy security calculus, driven by its massive oil import needs, may cost it dearly in its crucial export markets. As August 27 approaches, the question isn't just about trade numbers but about the resilience of one of the world's fastest-growing economies facing its biggest trade challenge in years.

With Trump's track record of following through on tariff threats, investors may be underestimating the likelihood of implementation at their own peril.