Arthur Hayes zegt dat de oorlogseconomie van Trump Bitcoin naar $ 250k zou kunnen sturen - hier is zijn routekaart

Thu, Jul 31, 2025, 9:01 PM 4 min read

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Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes has laid out a bold thesis: President Donald Trump’s economic policies could drive Bitcoin to $250,000 by 2028. But his reasoning goes far beyond typical crypto hype—it’s rooted in what he calls America’s shift to a “fascist economic system” designed for wartime production.

Hayes argues that Trump’s administration is implementing what he terms “QE for Poor People”—a credit expansion strategy that bypasses traditional monetary policy. Unlike Federal Reserve money printing, this approach uses government-guaranteed contracts to encourage private bank lending to “critical” industries.

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The template? A recent deal with MP Materials (NYSE:MP), where the Defense Department became the company’s largest shareholder and guaranteed a floor price for rare earth elements at twice the current Chinese market rate. JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) and Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) are backing a $1 billion loan for the project.

“Banks will follow and do their patriotic duty funding enterprises that suckle at the government teet,” Hayes writes, explaining how government guarantees eliminate lending risk and create new money supply through commercial banking credit.

Hayes’s central thesis rests on a simple premise: Bitcoin’s price correlates strongly with credit growth. He created a custom index tracking U.S. bank reserves and lending activity, showing that when credit doubled since January 2020, Bitcoin increased 15-fold.

The mechanism works like this: As the government guarantees profits for defense contractors, semiconductor manufacturers, and rare earth processors, banks extend more credit. This newly created money flows through the economy, and increasingly finds its way into Bitcoin as both retail and institutional investors seek inflation hedges.

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Trump’s crypto-friendly policies amplify this effect. Recent executive orders allow 401(k) plans – holding $8.7 trillion – in assets to invest in crypto, while proposed legislation would eliminate capital gains taxes on cryptocurrency entirely.